FRee soccer tips for today 13/august/2019

UEFA Champions League | Tofiq Bahramov | 13th August
FK Qarabag badge
FK Qarabag
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • D
KO 17:30
Apoel Nicosia badge
Apoel Nicosia
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L
 

PICK: FK Qarabag to Win and Over 1.5 Match Goals

REASON FOR THIS PREDICTION

Considering that playing on the road hasn’t exactly been their forte, Qarabag would’ve surely taken a point away from home in the first leg, though the Azerbaijanis went one better, beating APOEL by two goals to one in Cyprus. After scoring two away goals on route to victory a week ago, Tuesday’s hosts will fancy themselves to finish off the job on home soil.

There was nothing flash about Qarabag’s showing in Cyprus last week, but what they lacked in flamboyancy, they more than made up for in terms of both effectiveness and solidity. Defensively, as they’ve tended to do during this qualification campaign, Gurban Gurbanov’s men restricted their opponents, allowing just 0.89 expected goals for. They created marginally less by posting just 0.76, but they were clinical when foraying into the final third, as each of their five shots tested APOEL keeper Vid Belec.

Not only did Qarabag do well a week ago, but they’ve delivered two very encouraging efforts at home during qualifying. Last time out at this venue, the Azerbaijanis beat Dundalk by three goals to nil. On that occasion, they dominated in areas, while they crucially created 2.51 expected goals for and conceded just 0.62. Prior to that, Qarabag beat Partizani Tirana at home by two goals to nil, creating 2.03 expected goals for and conceding 1.04 in the process.

While Qarabag have looked useful on home soil during qualifying, APOEL, who entered the process during the previous round, appeared to be somewhat shaky in their only previous away game. During the second qualifying phase, the Cypriots did beat Sutjeska 1-0 away from home, but their performance wasn’t great, as they conceded 1.56 expected goals for. They created a pleasing 1.76, but their defensive antics don’t exactly bode well ahead of a trip to Tofiq Bahramov Stadium, where Tuesday’s hosts have been so effective.

The fact that APOEL must chase this game doesn’t help Tuesday’s visitors, who looked tame going forward during the first leg. What’s more, Qarabag have shown that they can score goals quite easily on home soil, so the fact that the visitors must take risks should play into the hands of the hosts.

In the betting, ‘Qarabag to Win & Over 1.5 Goals’ appears to be a solid option. Not only did Tuesday’s hosts notch twice on route to victory in the first leg, but they now have the advantage of playing on the break, which has suited them in previous qualifying games. Add in the fact that they’ve delivered expected goals for figures of 2.51 and 2.03 at home during qualifying, coupled with the fact that APOEL shipped 1.56 away from home during the previous round, and it’s easy to feel that the chances of Qarabag bagging twice before coming out on top are slightly greater than the current odds would have us believe.

Close Menu